Nike announces upcoming 2026 Investor Day

The road to Investor Day

Second quarter of fiscal 2025 to the first quarter of fiscal 2027 · latest results October 1, 2026

Quarter by quarter

Revenue and EPS link to the filing they come from. Growth is against the same quarter a year earlier; growth and gross margin are calculated by Opportunity Dispatch from the filed figures. ^† Worked out from the 10-K, less the first three quarters. ^‡ From the results release.

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Five years of falling shares

Nike's shares closed at $174.88 on November 15, 2021. On October 30, 2026, they closed at $38.67, less than a quarter of that level. In between, revenue fell, margins narrowed and the leadership changed: Elliott Hill, who had retired from Nike in 2020, returned as president and chief executive in 2024, and David Denton joined as chief financial officer from Pfizer on August 17, 2026, replacing Matthew Friend. The shares closed at $33.87 on October 2, 2026, the day after the first-quarter report that set fiscal 2027 guidance and announced a cost program, and rose from there into the end of the month. At the Investor Day on Monday, November 16, 2026, Hill and Denton have said they will lay out a long-term growth algorithm and the detail of that program, which they call Pace.

A slide, a stall and two realities

The table shows revenue falling through fiscal 2025, steepest in the fourth quarter, as Nike cut supply of its biggest lifestyle franchises and discounted to clear inventory; full-year revenue was $46.3 billion, down 10%. Fiscal 2026 was flat at $46.4 billion, with wholesale growing as Nike rebuilt relationships with retailers while NIKE Direct, its own stores and digital platforms, shrank. The decline resumed in the quarter to August 31, 2026.

Gross margin narrowed through fiscal 2025 on discounts and channel mix, then through fiscal 2026 as tariffs on goods imported into the United States raised product costs. The fourth-quarter jump was an accounting event: after the Supreme Court ruled in February 2026 that tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were unauthorized, Nike booked an expected recovery of $986 million, which added $0.52 to diluted earnings per share for the quarter.

Hill described two realities on the first-quarter call. The performance business, product built for sports such as running, football, basketball and training, reached $16 billion in fiscal 2026 and grew high single digits in the quarter, he said, with running up double digits, World Cup kit sales double those of the 2022 tournament, and the Caitlin 1, a women's basketball signature shoe, launched in 5,000 doors. Against that, NIKE Sportswear, just under half of revenue, fell low double digits as Nike cut Dunk revenue by nearly 50%, a headwind of roughly $200 million. Jordan Brand, 13% of the business, fell by mid-teens, after a 5% currency-neutral decline in fiscal 2026. Greater China revenue fell 26% on a currency-neutral basis, Denton said, as Nike shuts digital distribution that had become promotional. NIKE Direct revenues were $4.1 billion, down 8%, and Converse fell 28% to $263 million.

Rivals growing where Nike is shrinking

adidas reported record third-quarter revenue, up 9% to 7.25 billion euros, with direct-to-consumer sales up 17% and performance revenues up 27% over the first nine months of 2026; its sales in Greater China rose 20% while Europe fell 4%, and it raised its full-year guidance to currency-neutral sales growth of 9% to 10%. In running, Forbes reported that Nike has been losing share to On, Hoka, New Balance and adidas across US retail channels, while On reaffirmed growth of at least 23% in constant currency for 2026. Hoka has slowed: Deckers said Hoka sales rose 6.8% to $677.2 million in the quarter to September 30, 2026, and now expects high single digit growth for its fiscal year. In China, Anta's first-half revenue rose 12.9% to RMB43.51 billion, though its namesake brand grew 4.8%; Business of Fashion wrote that missteps and domestic competition had left Nike trailing there, and WWD reported that Anta executives backed Nike's move to reduce sell-in while warning that mass-market confidence would take time to recover. At retail, Dick's Sporting Goods and Foot Locker reported weak results and a dim outlook in August, with consumers unwilling to pay full price for sneakers, and Dick's executives said discounting on legacy silhouettes would keep the market promotional through 2026. Analysts at BNP Paribas estimated that Jordan is about a quarter of Foot Locker's revenue and that the retro pullback could cost the chain roughly $550 million in sales from spring 2027.

What Hill and Denton say now

Hill said on the first-quarter call: “Despite that progress, our NIKE Performance business is not yet large enough to offset the pressure we're seeing in NIKE Sportswear, Jordan Brand and Greater China.” On Jordan, Nike will cut the volume and frequency of retro launches, with North America feeling the biggest impact. Hill said: “Simply put, we've been oversupplying our iconic retro product, asking them to do too much.” Asked what he had underappreciated on his return, he said it was the need to break Sportswear into segments built around distinct consumers.

Denton, six weeks into the job, said: “Our results are below both our expectations and our potential, and we are focused on closing this gap.” Pace, which builds on the cost plan announced in March 2026, covers a more flexible supply chain, a new campus in Bengaluru, India, a move from four geographies to three, with Greater China combined with Asia Pacific, and a smaller workforce over time. Nike expects approximately $2.5 billion in cumulative savings through fiscal 2031 against approximately $1.0 billion of pre-tax charges, with most of the savings arriving in fiscal 2029 and 2030, Denton said. Pressed by analysts on the dividend, he said it remained a significant priority under all scenarios.

The quarter, the guidance and what to watch

In the quarter to August 31, 2026, Greater China and EMEA declined while North America grew, and gross margin improved on lower warehousing and logistics costs. Selling and administrative expense fell to $3.9 billion even as demand creation spending rose for the World Cup; inventories were $7.8 billion, cash and short-term investments $8.4 billion, and dividends paid approximately $610 million.

For fiscal 2027, Nike expects revenue to decline in the high-single digits, with supply cuts in Sportswear, Jordan and Greater China weighing through the year and into fiscal 2028, EBIT falling by a greater percentage than revenue, and adjusted diluted earnings per share of $1.15 to $1.35, excluding approximately $0.15 of Pace restructuring expense. Denton said on the call that the second quarter carries a headwind of approximately 400 basis points from lapping Cyber Week promotions in EMEA and North America sell-in, and that the guidance assumes China revenue worsens for the balance of the year.

At the Investor Day, watch for the five-year financial algorithm Denton promised, the measures Nike will use to track Pace, the plan to segment Sportswear, the depth of the Jordan retro pullback and when China revenue might stop falling.