Moderna announces upcoming 2026 Analyst Day

The road to Analyst Day

Third quarter of 2024 to the second quarter of 2026 · latest results July 31, 2026

Quarter by quarter

Revenue and EPS link to the filing they come from. Growth is against the same quarter a year earlier; growth and gross margin are calculated by Opportunity Dispatch from the filed figures. ^† Worked out from the 10-K, less the first three quarters. ^‡ From the results release.

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A stock that fell with the pandemic and climbed back

Moderna goes into its Analyst Day on November 12, 2026 as a company that has shrunk from pandemic supplier to seasonal vaccine business and is now trying to grow again. The shares closed at $329.63 on November 22, 2021. They closed at $23.75 on November 4, 2025, and at $258.38 on November 4, 2026, still below the 2021 close but far above where they stood a year earlier.

Revenue for the full year 2025 was $1.9 billion, a 40% decrease from 2024, most of it from COVID vaccines, with $1.2 billion from the US and $745 million from international markets. Moderna entered 2026 with three products: Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE, its COVID vaccines, and mRESVIA, its RSV vaccine. Its plan is a seasonal vaccine franchise for at-risk populations that funds oncology and rare disease programs, with cash breakeven expected in 2028.

Growth that returned from abroad, and costs that came down

The table shows revenue falling against the year before through every quarter of 2025, then jumping in the first quarter of 2026 and flattening in the second. Through 2025 the cause was lower COVID vaccine volume: in the third quarter of 2025, the largest of the year, US COVID sales were $781 million, with US vaccination rates down year over year and some government contracts abroad completed. The turn in 2026 came from deliveries under long-term partnerships with governments, led by the first shipment to the United Kingdom, which gave the first quarter $311 million of international revenue against $78 million in the US. Those deliveries had slipped from 2025, when Moderna cut the high end of its revenue range by $300 million for the timing shift.

The gross margin swings reflect a seasonal business whose small spring quarters carry unutilized capacity and inventory write-downs, and, in the first quarter of 2026, a settlement with Arbutus Biopharma and Genevant Sciences that resolved all litigation worldwide: $878 million of settlement expense went through cost of sales, and the $950 million payment followed in July 2026.

Moderna said it lowered annual operating expenses by approximately $2.2 billion in 2025 as large Phase 3 respiratory programs wound down and it cut its workforce by approximately 10%. Cash and investments ended 2025 at $8.1 billion, including $600 million drawn on a credit facility, and stood at $6.9 billion on June 30, 2026.

The pipeline had setbacks: the FDA at first refused to file the seasonal flu vaccine, the Phase 3 CMV vaccine failed, and in July 2026 the norovirus vaccine missed its bar for early success at an interim analysis. Against that, mCOMBRIAX, the flu plus COVID combination, was approved in the European Union in April 2026, and five-year Phase 2b data showed intismeran, the individualized cancer therapy developed with Merck, with KEYTRUDA cut the risk of recurrence or death in melanoma by 49%.

The competition

Pfizer's Comirnaty, the rival mRNA COVID vaccine, saw revenue fall in the third quarter of 2026, down 29%, as narrower US recommendations cut utilization and international contractual deliveries declined. Sanofi now leads sales of Novavax's protein-based Nuvaxovid in most major markets, and Novavax said a Sanofi head-to-head study showed a favorable tolerability profile against a next-generation mRNA vaccine. The CDC kept its July 2025 COVID recommendations for the 2026-2027 season amid legal uncertainty.

In flu, the FDA approved mFLUSIVA in August 2026, putting Moderna against GSK, CSL Seqirus, AstraZeneca and Sanofi. Sanofi has filed to extend its high-dose flu vaccine to younger adults, those 50 and older, in the US and EU, and in October 2026 the European Commission accepted binding commitments from Sanofi to end a probe into alleged disparagement of CSL Seqirus's Fluad. In RSV, GSK's Arexvy and Pfizer's Abrysvo both reported steep sales declines in late 2024 after US guidelines narrowed, and BioSpace reported, citing an analyst note, that mRESVIA's share of the US market remained negligible.

In oncology, Moderna and Merck said in August 2026 that intismeran had succeeded in its Phase 3 melanoma trial, without disclosing specific data. BioNTech, the closest rival in individualized mRNA cancer therapy, terminated a Phase 2 colorectal cancer trial of autogene cevumeran on August 28, 2026 after a monitoring board cited a numerical imbalance in overall survival; its pancreatic cancer trial continues.

What management says now

On the second-quarter call on July 31, 2026, James Mock, the chief financial officer, said first-half revenue was $0.5 billion, 69% of it international, and that the second half hinged on the size of the US market. “So if we are flat in the second half, that would actually be above 10% growth for the year,” he said. Stephen Hoge, the president, said mNEXSPIKE took about 24% of the US retail COVID vaccine market in its first season. Stephane Bancel, the chief executive, pointed to the expiry in 2026 of an exclusive EU COVID contract held by a competitor: “So we really see Europe as a very important growth driver for us.” Analysts pressed for the timing of the intismeran readout. “As David said, we're highly confident we'll get that data in the second half of this year or at least that interim analysis will be completed,” Hoge said.

The latest quarter and what to watch

In the second quarter of 2026, revenue was $87 million in the US and $58 million in international markets, as lower COVID sales in the US and South America were offset by UK deliveries and stand-ready manufacturing revenue. Moderna's guidance is for up to 10% revenue growth from 2025, split roughly 50% US and international, with about 55% of second-half revenue in the third quarter. It lowered its cost of sales guidance to approximately $1.7 billion, including the $0.9 billion settlement charge, lowered R&D to approximately $2.9 billion, and improved its year-end cash guidance to $4.7 to $5.2 billion. On November 12, the questions are the US COVID season, flu vaccine pricing and first contracts, European tenders for mCOMBRIAX, the full intismeran data, the propionic acidemia readout expected in 2026, and the 2027 cost plan on the way to cash breakeven in 2028.